The first Assembly elections held in Jammu and Kashmir – five years after the Narendra Modi government summarily downsized it from a state into a union territory and scrapped Article 370 – have brought about a turnaround in the fortunes of the National Conference.
With 42 seats, it has emerged as the single largest party and is set to form the government with the Congress’s support. In the last Assembly elections held in 2014, when Jammu and Kashmir was still a state, the National Conference had won only 15 seats.
While the alliance was expected to do well in these elections, few had anticipated the resurgence of the National Conference in such a big way. Even the party seemed surprised by the verdict. “Voters have given us more votes than our expectations,” Omar Abdullah, party vice-president and chief minister-designate, told reporters on Tuesday.
But observers argue that the verdict is a reflection not so much of the National Conference’s political nous but the Kashmiri voter’s canny reading of the situation and her determination that the mandate should not be fractured.
“People put their faith in the National Conference not because they deserved it but because they thought it was the best option available,” said Noor Ahmad Baba, former professor of political science at Kashmir University,. “People were clear. They did not want the Bharatiya Janata Party. The only option they had against the BJP in Kashmir was the National Conference.”
The voters’ choices were narrowed by the decimation of the other key regional player in Kashmir, the Peoples Democratic Party, which has struggled to win back its credibility after allying with the BJP in 2014 to form the government. In the end, PDP crashed to a resounding defeat – its tally reduced to three seats from 28 seats in the 2014 polls.
As soon as the elections for the Assembly were announced in August, political activity picked up dramatically in the region.
While Jammu region was involved in a traditional bi-polar contest, Kashmir Valley saw the entry of multiple players – from political parties newly created after the scrapping of Kashmir’s special status in 2019 to those who had boycotted elections for decades to the hundreds of independent candidates who crowded the field.
To many in Kashmir, this massive churn ahead of elections in Kashmir was not possible without Delhi’s green signal.
Moreover, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s game plan was clearly dependent on a similar situation. The party contested only 19 out of the 47 seats in Kashmir Valley. Hopeful of sweeping Jammu, the party’s strategy in Kashmir was to bank on some “independent” candidates to reach the majority. The only way independents, whose number ran in hundreds, could win in Kashmir, was through the fragmentation of vote.
Not surprisingly, many voters saw the shadow of New Delhi’s possible machinations looming large over the election.
Observers say Kashmiris saw through these machinations and consolidated behind one party – National Conference. “Kashmiris are emotional but they are politically very conscious. In the past, they have seen how New Delhi has used smaller players to cut dominant political forces in Kashmir to size,” said a political analyst in Srinagar, who requested not to be identified. “They did not allow that to happen this time.”
In its manifesto for the 2024 elections, the National Conference promised to “strive” for the restoration of Article 370 and Article 35A – the two provisions which had guaranteed internal autonomy and protection in matters like land and jobs for locals – and which had been cancelled in August, 2019.
While other regional parties in the region and Congress had also tried to tap into the anger against New Delhi’s decision to unilaterally scrap Jammu and Kashmir’s special status and statehood, the National Conference’s message seems to have resonated more with most of the electorate in Kashmir Valley and some areas of Jammu. Of the 42 seats it won, 35 came from Kashmir Valley while the rest from Pir Panjal and Chenab valley regions of Jammu.
What made the National Conference more credible was its historical incompatibility with the Hindu right-wing forces and its role in negotiating Jammu and Kashmir’s relationship with India after 1947.
“The National Conference was solely responsible for negotiating Article 370 and getting it placed in the Constitution of India,” said Baba.
The Srinagar-based political analyst agreed. “Right from 1931, a popular discourse shaped up, thanks to the National Conference, that we have a separate identity,” he said. “People wanted their separate identity and distinctness to be accepted. Article 370 was the culmination of that movement led by the National Conference. The party has a history of asserting Kashmiri identity within India.”
This special status within the Indian union was bitterly opposed by Hindu right-wing forces in India even then. “The BJP, in its older form of Jan Sangh, has from the very beginning wanted to undo Article 370. So, the present tussle between NC and BJP begins right from the post-1950s,” said Baba.
In August 2019, the BJP ended up on the winning side of this struggle, as it abrogated Article 370, even as the Valley was put under curfew.
“Every Kashmiri knows that Article 370 cannot be restored immediately but for them keeping things alive is also important,” the Srinagar-based analyst said. “In that scenario, structurally and ideologically, NC is perhaps the only party that can assert that we [J&K] had a special identity within the Indian constitution and that identity needs to be protected.”
While holding power is not something new for the 92-year-old party, it will be faced with a new reality as it runs the government.
With the erstwhile state downgraded into two union territories and its special autonomous status gone, the elected government’s powers are by default very limited. The significant decisions the National Conference government would like to take will have to get the final approval of the Centre’s representative, the Lieutenant Governor.
“The National Conference might start with taking some big decisions like passing a resolution for statehood but they know these decisions will be blocked by the LG,” said the Srinagar-based political observer.
A version of the fractious tussle between the LG and the Aam Aadmi Party government in Delhi might also play out in Jammu and Kashmir, observers said. “NC might eventually play victim like [former Delhi chief minister] Arvind Kejriwal,” said the observer. “It will say that they tried to do this or that but have not been allowed by the Centre.”
For now, such a struggle might allow voters to ignore the limitations of the party.
While the National Conference has dominated mainstream politics in the region, it has also pioneered dynastic politics in Kashmir and has rarely tried to shun that image. For example, Omar Abdullah’s two sons have been actively participating in the recent election campaigns, hinting that the fourth generation of Abdullahs are ready to debut in politics. Similarly, many of its elected leaders in this election are second-generation MLAs.
That, however, has not weighed much on the mind of voters this time, observers said.
“Nobody is talking about corruption-free governance right now,” the political observer in Srinagar said. “It’s all about the assertion of Kashmiri identity.”